Biotech valuation in which the science can change the value
Connect scientific evidence and uncertainty to PoS, rNPV, option value and the asset or portfolio decision under review.
Decision questions
What this solution is built to answer.
What is the defensible value range for this asset or portfolio?
Which assumptions move value most: probability of success, launch timing, price, peak share, discount rate, or loss of exclusivity?
How should single-asset value roll up into portfolio value with correlation and downside risk?
Does a platform deserve value beyond the visible program layer?
What should go into the board pack, investor memo, or fundraise negotiation model?
Science and method
What can change the model or gate.
Single-asset risk-adjusted valuation with stage costs, probability of success, discounting, scenario samples, waterfalls, tornadoes, and value distributions.
Portfolio valuation with asset weights, correlations, diversification effects, and portfolio-level downside views.
Commercial modeling with geography, pricing corridors, penetration curves, reimbursement lag, loss-of-exclusivity erosion, and cash-flow stacks.
Platform valuation with visible program value plus platform option value from throughput, reuse, probability uplift, cycle time, and BD evidence.
Fundraise pricing with VC haircuts, cap-table dilution waterfalls, liquidation preference variants, and investor-thesis playbooks.
Method and decision gates
How the case is computed and reviewed.
| Workflow | Role | Artifacts |
|---|---|---|
| valuation-essential-workflow | Single-asset valuation foundation | VALUATION__RNPV, S0, SENSITIVITY, WATERFALL, TORNADO, MEMO |
| valuation-professional-workflow | Multi-asset portfolio valuation | Portfolio value, scenarios, correlations, regional analysis, professional report |
| valuation-enterprise-workflow | Enterprise valuation for committee review | Real-options outputs, probability updates, platform diagnostics, optimization, board deck |
| valuation-fundraise-workflow | Fundraise and cap-table valuation | Pricing bands, cap-table simulation, term-sheet sensitivity, fundraise playbook |
Evidence inputs
Supporting evidence, rights and decision inputs.
Decision record
What remains available for review.
Deliverables
Valuation memo with assumption provenance and confidence labels.
Portfolio value files plus charts for waterfall, tornado, scenario, correlation, and downside risk.
Enterprise decision dossier and companion committee deck.
Fundraise pricing and dilution playbook with explicit negotiation ranges.
Proof points
Valuation work uses dedicated calculators, scenario steps, and visual outputs rather than generic chat prompts.
Monte Carlo outputs can persist as data files and plots for preview, download, and later review.
Enterprise valuation keeps per-asset, portfolio, platform, real-options, BD, risk, and board-pack phases in one workflow.
Limits and review conditions
What this result does not establish.
A valuation is conditional on its evidence and assumptions; it is not a prediction or investment recommendation.
FAQ
Common evaluation questions.
Does ARiDA only calculate rNPV?
rNPV is one layer. The valuation workflows can also cover portfolio value, real-options analysis, platform value, probability updates, fundraise pricing, BD deal simulation and Monte Carlo risk.
Can users override assumptions?
Yes. User-provided probabilities, costs, timelines, commercial assumptions, platform evidence, discount rates, and scenario definitions can override defaults. The workflow records provenance for each major assumption.
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Related reading
Build a biotech valuation case that exposes its science
A credible valuation connects scientific support, uncertainty and commercial assumptions to the value distribution.
Triage a portfolio without turning judgment into a score
Use hard gates, uncertainty and resource constraints to expose the real allocation choice.
Build the decision case before the committee deck
A committee document is credible only when the evidence, assumptions and alternatives exist underneath it.