67%
of projected 2030 revenue for the top 25 biopharma companies is expected to come from acquisitions, joint ventures and licensing.
Source: EY-ParthenonThe capital allocation problem
Biopharma is a multibillion-dollar betting machine without a common system for testing its bets.
Every internal program, license, acquisition and portfolio move competes for the same capital, people and time. Yet each is judged through a different process, with different evidence, assumptions and incentives. Weak bets stay funded, better alternatives are crowded out and yesterday's case keeps governing tomorrow's capital.
About 70%
of acquired early-stage assets in an EY-Parthenon analysis did not meet deal expectations.
Source: EY-Parthenon9% / 70%
of asset-indications in Deloitte’s 2025 late-stage cohort are projected to generate about 70% of its total risk-adjusted peak sales.
Source: DeloitteWhere capital decisions are made
01
Internal programs
Should the company fund the next stage, change the development plan, seek a partner or stop?
Fund / redirect / partner / stop
02
Licensing
Does the asset justify the price, milestones, royalties, option structure and risk the deal transfers?
Proceed / renegotiate / wait / walk
03
M&A
Do the pipeline, platform, capabilities and synergies justify the premium and integration risk?
Acquire / restructure / decline
04
Portfolio allocation
Which bets deserve scarce capital and talent when every decision displaces another?
Allocate / sequence / divest
05
Life-science investment
Do the science, milestones, financing path and ownership economics support the next cheque?
Invest / reserve / pass
06
Growth strategy
Should the company build, buy or partner to close a pipeline, market or capability gap?
Build / buy / partner
Supported by
Ecosystem and memberships
The executable investment case
ARiDA runs the investment case.
ARiDA connects the strategic question to the evidence, economics, alternatives and decision rights behind it. The case is recomputed and returned to review when a material fact moves.
A case that can be tested
See whether the bet still deserves capital.
When evidence, costs, timing, market assumptions or transaction terms change, supported analyses recompute and show what crossed a threshold. Reviewers see the prior case, the new case and the reason for the change.
Decision and alternatives
The case states the capital question and the options leadership can choose.
Evidence and uncertainty
Support, contradictions, gaps and source rights remain visible.
Value and terms
Economics, transaction structure, scenarios and thresholds stay connected.
Approval and reopening
Owners, dissent, conditions and material change return the case to review.
Start with the capital decision
Define the bet before the analysis expands.
ARiDA begins with the alternatives, decision criteria, evidence requirements and unresolved questions. Whether the choice is to fund, license, acquire or reallocate, the case gathers and computes only what that decision requires.
Approve a capital action
Release an action, not another report.
The case ends in a capital action: fund, license, acquire, partner, defer or stop. Reviewers can inspect the evidence, assumptions, economics, alternatives and dissent before approval. The conditions that would reopen the decision remain explicit.
Why ARiDA
One underwriting standard from evidence to capital.
ARiDA makes the investment case executable. Evidence and transaction inputs flow into the relevant calculations, decision rules block unsupported conclusions and material changes reopen the case against the last approved baseline.
01
Evidence and thesis
Test what must be true.
Scientific, clinical, patent, competitive, commercial and execution evidence is judged against the claims that support the bet. Contradictions and missing evidence remain visible.
What changes
The case can strengthen, narrow or fail before attractive economics are allowed to dominate.
02
Economics and terms
Price the bet, its structure and its downside.
Probability, cost, timing, revenue, deal terms, dilution, dependencies and portfolio correlation run through inspectable calculations and scenarios.
What changes
The team sees the value range, price ceiling, largest sensitivities, downside and cost of waiting.
03
Decision rules
Make the stop conditions explicit.
Safety vetoes, admissibility rules, missing-data behavior, thresholds, approval rights and scenario assumptions remain explicit. A strong score elsewhere cannot cancel a serious liability.
What changes
A failed premise, breached threshold or missing requirement can block the recommendation and show why.
04
Continuous underwriting
Test the current bet against the approved case.
ARiDA compares new evidence, economics and terms with the last approved baseline. It identifies the affected assumption, recalculates supported analyses and routes material changes to the responsible owners.
What changes
A material change can reopen the decision before stale assumptions consume more capital.
Decision work, not research output
Put the committee question at the center of the analysis.
Each result shows what entered the case, what moved in the model and what it means for the decision. Teams can inspect the working analysis and release a committee paper, model, memo or deck from the same approved case.
Stage-gated rNPV
- Scientific or business input
- Development timing, cost, revenue, probability, price and transaction-structure assumptions.
- Calculation or analytical consequence
- Risk-adjusted cash flows and stage transitions across the program.
- Decision question
- What is the asset worth, what can we pay and which assumptions set the walk-away point?
Release formats
Move reviewed work into the format the next reviewer needs.
Files are the release and handoff format, not the product itself. The Decision Case remains the record of the evidence, assumptions, calculation and approval behind each exported view.
PPTX
Committee decks
Reviewed charts and conclusions arranged for a decision meeting.
- Investment committee deck
- Business development review
- Asset decision readout
XLSX
Working models
Formulas, assumptions and sensitivities available for finance review.
- rNPV assumption model
- Portfolio allocation workbook
- Scenario register
PDF
Released reports
A stable record of the analysis, caveats and approved recommendation.
- Decision memo with appendix
- Scientific assessment
- Asset dossier
DOCX
Editable narratives
Working copy for subject-matter and editorial review.
- Pre-meeting brief
- Strategic options memo
- Development recommendation
MD · JSON · CSV
Structured handoffs
Machine-readable records for approved downstream use.
- Markdown for the knowledge base
- JSON for an internal system
- CSV for further analysis
Specialist methods, one investment case
Use the analysis the decision demands.
Studios bring scientific, financial, portfolio and patent methods into the same case. The capital decision determines the work required, while evidence, assumptions and asset context remain connected between methods.
Explore StudiosStudios are introduced through private enterprise engagements. Available methods depend on the decision, deployment configuration and permitted evidence.
01
Target opportunity
Target Studio
Does this target deserve the next investment?
Assemble target identity, disease biology, mechanism, tractability, safety and clinical precedent. ARiDA shows which evidence strengthens the thesis, which evidence blocks it and what should be learned next.
Open Target02
Asset decisions
Drug Studio
Should this asset advance, defer, stop, be licensed or be passed?
Keep molecular developability, mechanism, clinical evidence, safety, competitive analogues, regulatory context, IP evidence and business assumptions inside the same asset case.
Open Drug03
Expansion strategy
Indication Studio
Where should this asset go next?
Compare scientific admissibility, clinical feasibility, differentiation, economics and execution constraints without hiding a weak dimension inside one composite score.
Open Indication04
Asset and portfolio value
Valuation Studio
What is the defensible value range, and what moves it?
Connect scientific and clinical assumptions to rNPV, Monte Carlo distributions, real options and value of information. Reviewers can inspect an assumption and rerun the affected case.
Open Valuation05
Capital allocation
Portfolio Studio
Which programs should receive capital now?
Evaluate assets against strategy, cash, capacity, shared scientific risk, timing and available options. Keep credible alternatives and dominated choices visible for the committee.
Open Portfolio06
IP evidence
Patent Studio
Which IP evidence changes the business decision?
Connect patent-family, ownership, claim-theme, exclusivity and proceeding evidence to lifecycle, transaction and competitive questions. Patent Studio prepares evidence for business and counsel review. It does not provide legal opinions or clearance conclusions.
Open PatentEvidence substrate
The case stays connected to the facts that can change it.
ARiDA relates scientific, clinical, competitive, commercial and transaction evidence to assets, assumptions and prior decisions. Sources remain inspectable, with rights and provenance carried into the investment case.
Evidence sources by topic: Targets: OpenTargets · UniProt · NCBI Gene; Drugs: ChEMBL · PubChem · FDA · EMA; Compounds & assays: ChEMBL · PubChem · customer evidence; Clinical trials: ClinicalTrials.gov · customer evidence; Patents & IP: USPTO · EPO · WIPO; Literature: NCBI E-utilities · PubMed · PMC; Diseases & evidence: Open Targets · ClinVar · literature; Companies & deals: SEC / EDGAR · NIH RePORTER · live web.
Continuous underwriting
The bet keeps changing after approval.
Trial results, competitor moves, safety findings, costs, timelines, market assumptions and deal terms can all change the investment case. ARiDA tests new information against the approved baseline and returns material changes to the right owners.
Review where the team works
Web
Review the full investment case and its working material.Microsoft Teams
Bring case updates into the team workspace.Email
Receive scheduled reviews and respond in context.Telegram
Handle concise updates and approvals while away from the desk.Route a material change to the right case
A trial result, safety finding, competitor move, cost revision, timeline change or deal term is attached to the investment case it may change.
Recalculate what the change affects
ARiDA traces the new information to the relevant assumption, calculation and decision rule. The prior case remains available for comparison.
Reopen when a decision threshold is crossed
The case returns to the responsible owners when a scientific, clinical, commercial, financial or execution condition changes the approved posture.
Keep external action approval-led
Scheduled work and channel delivery can continue in the background. Messages, releases and consequential actions remain subject to the configured approval policy.
See how continuous underwriting works on a capital decision your team already reviews.
Enterprise deployment
Built for controlled, reviewable decision work.
ARiDA is configured around the customer's deployment architecture, access policy, data rights, retention requirements and approval process. Enterprise claims are evaluated against the exact deployment, not assumed from a generic product tier.
Decision governance
A recommendation should survive inspection.
Each Decision Case records the evidence, assumptions, calculation, method version, unresolved gaps, approvals and release history behind the recommendation. When evidence is missing, the case records the gap and shows how it limits the decision.
Enterprise evaluation includes a review of deployment architecture, access controls, data handling, source rights and retention configuration.
- Scoped workspaces and role-gated access
- Source and assumption lineage
- Versioned compute records and artifact hashes
- Approval and release gates
- Spend controls and audited run state
- Separate internal work and released stakeholder views
Enterprise engagements
Evaluate ARiDA in your operating environment.
Select an internal program, licensing opportunity, acquisition target or portfolio question. We configure the underwriting method, evidence rights, decision controls and deployment around the work your committee already performs.
Frequently asked questions.
Biopharma commits capital across internal programs, licensing, acquisitions and portfolio moves, but each bet is often evaluated through a different process. That makes opportunities difficult to compare and leaves leadership without a common way to tell whether an approved bet still deserves capital when the facts change.